NIO (NIO) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF (2024)

What is NIO Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-06-02), NIO's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $-4.59. The stock price of NIO is $5.39. Therefore, NIO's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.0.

The historical rank and industry rank for NIO's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

NIO's Price-to-Projected-FCF is not ranked *
in the industry.
Industry Median: 1.035
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-Projected-FCF only.

NIO Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for NIO's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

NIO Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

NIO Annual Data
TrendDec16Dec17Dec18Dec19Dec20Dec21Dec22Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial- - - -3.36 -4.59
NIO Quarterly Data
Mar19Jun19Sep19Dec19Mar20Jun20Sep20Dec20Mar21Jun21Sep21Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Mar23Jun23Sep23Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCFGet a 7-Day Free Trial-3.36 - - - -4.59

Competitive Comparison of NIO's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Auto Manufacturers subindustry, NIO's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

NIO's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, NIO's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where NIO's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.


NIO Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get NIO's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $-1,120.79.

NIO's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.5203515959648*-1120.7878571429+3577.804*0.8)/1700.204
=-4.59

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

NIO(NYSE:NIO) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

NIO's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=5.39/-4.5924202416228
=

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

NIO Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of NIO's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

NIO (NIO) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM »STOCK LIST »Consumer Cyclical » » NIO Inc (NYSE:NIO) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

Comparable Companies

XPEV VFS RIVN LCID PSNY NWTN LVWR FSR BLBD GGR TSLA TSE:7203 SZSE:002594 XTER:MBG XTER:BMW STLA XTER:VOW3 MIL:RACE TSE:7267 F

Traded in Other Exchanges

NIOIF:USA NIO:Singapore NIO:Mexico 09866:Hong Kong N3I:Germany N3I:Germany N3IA:Germany N3IA:Germany

Address

No. 56 AnTuo Road, Building 20, Anting Town, Jiading District, Shanghai, CHN, 201804

Nio is a leading electric vehicle maker, targeting the premium segment. Founded in November 2014, Nio designs, develops, jointly manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. The company differentiates itself through continuous technological breakthroughs and innovations such as battery swapping and autonomous driving technologies. Nio launched its first model, its ES8 seven-seater electric SUV, in December 2017, and began deliveries in June 2018. Its current model portfolio includes midsize to large sedans and SUVs. It sold over 122,000 EVs in 2022, accounting for about 2% of the China passenger new energy vehicle market.

NIO (NIO) Headlines

From GuruFocus

NIO Inc. Provides October 2023 Delivery Update

By Marketwired 11-01-2023

NIO Inc. Reports Unaudited Second Quarter 2023 Financial Results

By Marketwired 08-29-2023

NIO Inc. Announces Closing of US$1 Billion Convertible Senior Notes Offering

By GlobeNewswire 09-25-2023

NIO Inc. Prices Offering of�US$1 Billion Convertible Senior Notes

By Marketwired 09-20-2023

NIO Inc. Provides October 2023 Delivery Update

By GlobeNewswire 11-01-2023

NIO Inc. Announces that Deliveries in July 2023 Reached 20,462 Vehicles

By Marketwired 08-01-2023

NIO Inc. Announces Closing of Strategic Equity Investment from CYVN

By Marketwired 07-12-2023

Morning Brew: Nasdaq Leads Major U.S. Stock Averages with 43% Climb in 2023

By GuruFocus Research 01-01-2024

Is NIO (NIO) Too Good to Be True? A Comprehensive Analysis of a Potential Value Trap

By GuruFocus Research 09-19-2023

NIO Inc. Provides September and Third Quarter 2023 Delivery Update

By GlobeNewswire 10-01-2023

NIO (NIO)  Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF (2024)

FAQs

What is the free cash flow of NIO? ›

NIO annual free cash flow for 2023 was $-2.204B, a 40.31% increase from 2022. NIO annual free cash flow for 2022 was $-1.571B, a 374.18% increase from 2021. NIO annual free cash flow for 2021 was $-0.331B, a 319.19% decline from 2020.

What is the intrinsic value of NIO? ›

As of 2024-05-24, the Intrinsic Value of NIO Inc (NIO) is (45.82) USD. This NIO valuation is based on the model Discounted Cash Flows (Growth Exit 5Y). With the current market price of 4.80 USD, the upside of NIO Inc is -1054.5%. The range of the Intrinsic Value is (110.16) - (29.52) USD.

What is the fair value of NIO? ›

As of 2024-06-01, the Fair Value of NIO Inc (NIO) is -6.99 USD.

What is the future price of NIO? ›

NIO Stock 12 Month Forecast

Based on 18 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Nio in the last 3 months. The average price target is $6.66 with a high forecast of $10.40 and a low forecast of $4.00. The average price target represents a 23.79% change from the last price of $5.38.

Is NIO a value trap? ›

As of today (2024-05-24), NIO's share price is $4.80. NIO's GF Value is $22.21. Therefore, NIO's Price-to-GF-Value for today is 0.22. Based on the relationship between the current stock price and the GF Value, GuruFocus believes NIO is Possible Value Trap, Think Twice.

What could NIO stock be worth in 10 years? ›

In 2030, the NIO Inc. stock will reach $ 1,591.03 if it maintains its current 10-year average growth rate. If this NIO Inc. stock prediction for 2030 materializes, NIO stock will grow 29,200.79% from its current price.

Who owns the most NIO stock? ›

Who owns Nio? Nio (NYSE: NIO) is owned by 15.82% institutional shareholders, 0.00% Nio insiders, and 84.18% retail investors. Blackrock Inc is the largest individual Nio shareholder, owning 62.64M shares representing 3.01% of the company. Blackrock Inc's Nio shares are currently valued at $306.93M.

What is the highest NIO stock has ever been? ›

NIO - 6 Year Stock Price History | NIO

Historical daily share price chart and data for NIO since 2018 adjusted for splits and dividends. The latest closing stock price for NIO as of May 30, 2024 is 5.40. The all-time high NIO stock closing price was 62.84 on February 09, 2021.

How much cash does NIO have on hand? ›

Cash on Hand as of December 2023 : $7.03 B

According to NIO's latest financial reports the company has $7.03 B in cash and cash equivalents. A company's cash on hand also refered as cash/cash equivalents (CCE) and Short-term investments, is the amount of accessible money a business has.

Is NIO volatile? ›

For now, it can sell investors on that future. That said, investors should understand that Nio will remain a highly speculative and volatile stock. Daniel Miller has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

What is the PE ratio of NIO? ›

P/E ratio as of May 2024 (TTM): -2.81

According to NIO's latest financial reports and stock price the company's current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is -2.81375. At the end of 2022 the company had a P/E ratio of -7.52.

How much will NIO be worth in 2025? ›

Nio (NIO) is expected to continue its rapid ascent after it starts making a profit in 2024. Nio (NIO) share price forecast for 2025 is between $170 and $200. In the years between 2021 and 2025, Nio (NIO) is projected to have a 400% increase in sales, from $5 billion to more than $22 billion.

Is NIO a buy, sell, or hold? ›

NIOStock , NIO

Compared to the opening price on Friday 05/31/2024 on BTT of $5.26, this is a gain of 2.59%. Is NIO stock a Buy, Sell or Hold? NIO stock has received a consensus rating of buy. The average rating score is and is based on 28 buy ratings, 21 hold ratings, and 3 sell ratings.

Is NIO debt free? ›

(NYSE:NIO) does carry debt.

What is EV free cash flow? ›

Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow compares the total valuation of the company with its ability to generate cashflow. The lower the ratio of enterprise value to the free cash flow figures, the faster a company can pay back the cost of its acquisition or generate cash to reinvest in its business.

How is NIO doing financially? ›

This China-based electric vehicle maker posted revenues of $2.41 billion, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.29 billion and rose 3.4% year over year due to higher delivery volumes. In the first quarter of 2024, NIO delivered 30,053 vehicles, which declined 3.2% year over year.

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