What is NIO Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2024-06-02), NIO's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $-4.59. The stock price of NIO is $5.39. Therefore, NIO's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.0.
The historical rank and industry rank for NIO's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
NIO's Price-to-Projected-FCF is not ranked *
in the industry.
Industry Median: 1.035
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-Projected-FCF only.
NIO Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
The historical data trend for NIO's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
* Premium members only.
NIO Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
NIO Annual Data | ||||||||||||||||
Trend | Dec16 | Dec17 | Dec18 | Dec19 | Dec20 | Dec21 | Dec22 | Dec23 | ||||||||
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | - | - | - | -3.36 | -4.59 |
NIO Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Mar19 | Jun19 | Sep19 | Dec19 | Mar20 | Jun20 | Sep20 | Dec20 | Mar21 | Jun21 | Sep21 | Dec21 | Mar22 | Jun22 | Sep22 | Dec22 | Mar23 | Jun23 | Sep23 | Dec23 | |
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | -3.36 | - | - | - | -4.59 |
Competitive Comparison of NIO's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
For the Auto Manufacturers subindustry, NIO's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
NIO's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry
For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, NIO's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where NIO's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
NIO Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get NIO's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $-1,120.79.
NIO's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF | = | (Growth Multiple | * | Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) | + | Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23) | * | 0.8) | / | Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) |
= | (9.5203515959648 | * | -1120.7878571429 | + | 3577.804 | * | 0.8) | / | 1700.204 | |
= | -4.59 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
NIO(NYSE:NIO) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
NIO's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF | = | Share Price | / | Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF |
= | 5.39 | / | -4.5924202416228 | |
= |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
NIO Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of NIO's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
NIO (NIO) Business Description
Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM »STOCK LIST »Consumer Cyclical » » NIO Inc (NYSE:NIO) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
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Traded in Other Exchanges
NIOIF:USA NIO:Singapore NIO:Mexico 09866:Hong Kong N3I:Germany N3I:Germany N3IA:Germany N3IA:Germany
Address
No. 56 AnTuo Road, Building 20, Anting Town, Jiading District, Shanghai, CHN, 201804
Website
Nio is a leading electric vehicle maker, targeting the premium segment. Founded in November 2014, Nio designs, develops, jointly manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. The company differentiates itself through continuous technological breakthroughs and innovations such as battery swapping and autonomous driving technologies. Nio launched its first model, its ES8 seven-seater electric SUV, in December 2017, and began deliveries in June 2018. Its current model portfolio includes midsize to large sedans and SUVs. It sold over 122,000 EVs in 2022, accounting for about 2% of the China passenger new energy vehicle market.
NIO (NIO) Headlines
From GuruFocus
NIO Inc. Provides October 2023 Delivery Update
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By GlobeNewswire • 11-01-2023
NIO Inc. Announces that Deliveries in July 2023 Reached 20,462 Vehicles
By Marketwired • 08-01-2023
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By Marketwired • 07-12-2023
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By GuruFocus Research • 01-01-2024
Is NIO (NIO) Too Good to Be True? A Comprehensive Analysis of a Potential Value Trap
By GuruFocus Research • 09-19-2023
NIO Inc. Provides September and Third Quarter 2023 Delivery Update
By GlobeNewswire • 10-01-2023