UK Supermarkets Market Report - Market Size & Forecast (2024)

The UK Supermarkets Market Report identifies consumers’ priorities and shifts in shopping habits due to the rising cost of living, the frequency of grocery shopping, and future innovation among the leading grocery multiples. This report covers the UK grocery market size, market forecast, market segmentation and UK supermarkets industry trends.

Frequently Asked Market Research Questions in the UK Grocery Industry

What are the current trends in the UK grocery industry?

As society reopened in 2022, consumer behaviours have returned to pre-pandemic norms, with a rise in ‘big basket’ and ‘top-up shops’. Naturally, the ‘top-up shops’ declined during the pandemic due to consumers limiting their time spent in crowded stores and a shift to online shopping.

The large-format sector remains the dominant channel with UK grocery, but has also faced a ten-year-long decline in sales share due to the growth of discount stores and modernised convenience stores.

What is the market share of the UK grocery industry?

Supermarkets, or large-format stores, are estimated to claim around 46.5% of total sales within the UK grocery industry in 2022. Tesco is the leading UK grocery retailer, accounting for over a quarter of all sales within the UK grocery market.

What is the UK grocery market size?

Mintel predicts that the market size of the UK grocery retail market is expected to remain positive through to 2027, growing by 13.7% between 2022 and 2027 to reach £227.3 billion.

UK Supermarkets Industry – Current Landscape

As society reopened, a natural rebalancing of in-home demand was expected, but this has been compounded by mounting pressure on household finances.

Customers are already altering their behaviour to save money during the cost-of-living crisis, with some consumers shopping for groceries less frequently. Many of the cost-saving actions taken by consumers should benefit the UK supermarkets industry, where their core trade is less frequent ‘big-basket’ shops and promotions are strongest. While value sales will remain positive, volumes will fall as consumers cut back, trade down in ranges or switch to a food discounter retailer.

UK Grocery Market Research – Trends and Statistics

The most significant threat to the leading players in the UK supermarkets industry is consumers switching to shop at the discount retailers Aldi and Lidl. A record 26% of UK consumers say they now spend the most with discounters in a typical month.

To help slow down the discounter retailers growing grocery market share, the main grocery multiples can innovate with loyalty schemes and invest in private label products. Non-food items, particularly clothing, should also drive demand in the larger-format stores due to value positioning.

Consumer behaviours in the UK supermarkets industry

• 34% of UK consumers stock up on grocery products when they are discounted.
• 33% of shoppers have switched to cheaper brands in the last 12 months.
• 18% of Brits shopping for groceries less frequently.
• 63% of grocery shoppers say the price of food and drink products has become more important to them in the past year.

UK Supermarkets Industry – Future Trends

In the longer term, the UK supermarkets industry will see an increase in volume growth as real incomes recover. Large-format stores will remain under pressure due to the anticipated growth in online grocery retailing and the increased demand for discount channels.

However, grocery multiples are far better equipped to retain consumers compared to the last recession. 44% of Tesco shoppers and 40% of Sainsbury’s shoppers say that these retailers’ respective Aldi Price matches have stopped them from switching. Investment and a renewed focus on loyalty schemes will help further maintain customer loyalty.

Read on to discover more about the UK Supermarkets Market Report 2022, read our UK Food and Non-Food Discounters Market Report 2022, or take a look at our other Food Retailing Market Research.

Quickly Understand

• Explores the UK grocery market size and the supermarket sector.
• How consumers shop for groceries and how frequently.
• Types of retail stores used and distribution of spending in the UK supermarkets industry by channel.
• Retailers used for primary and secondary shopping, along with market sizes.
• Loyalty/reward scheme membership and the impact it has on purchasing.
• Priority and behaviour shifts when choosing where to shop as a result of the cost-of-living crisis.
• Attitudes to fuel, promotions and food waste in the UK grocery market.

Leading Players in the Supermarkets Industry

Discounters are excluded from our definition of supermarket. While touched upon in this report, they are covered in more detail in Mintel’s UK Food and Non-food Discounters 2022 Market Report.

Brands: Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Morrisons, M&S, The Co-op, Lidl, Waitrose, Aldi, Iceland.

Expert Analysis from a Specialist in the Retail Sector

This report, written by Nick Carroll, a leading senior analyst in the food retail sector, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends in the UK supermarkets industry and add expert context to the numbers.

While the grocery sector is to a degree insulated from much of the pain being felt elsewhere in retail as much of its demand is non-discretionary, the shifts in behaviour seen in 2022 and that will continue to be seen in the short term have been no less dramatic. A third of shoppers have cut back grocery budgets, leading to record volume declines and a significant uptick in discounter use. However, the market leaders are better prepared than in the past recession to fight back against Aldi and Lidl, with price-matching schemes and a renewed focus on loyalty schemes having a material impact on defending market share.”

Nick Carroll
Category Director – Retail Insight